A reader of mine pointed out some bullish developments on the shorter time frames on BTC/USD chart. There is growing evidence that an intermediate bottom could be in. I am still leaning towards a deeper pullback, but as more evidence comes in I am open to changing my mind. There are two triangles on the hourly chart. An ascending triangle, which is a bullish pattern, that has yet to break out but is very close. The breakout level is 16185. We also have a symmetric triangle, which is a somewhat neutral pattern, but tends to be a continuation pattern. The continuation would actually be to the down side as the prior move was a down move, but since it has already broken to the bullish side that is a point for the bulls. That coupled with a series of higher lows and higher highs, continues to strengthen the bull case.
I would consider a small position size, shorter term trade with a fairly tight stop if we break the 16815 level and pullback to the support area. Again, I remain fairly bearish longer term, but I am always open to changing my opining as new information presents itself. There is a tremendous amount of overhead supply to deal with still and it is still possible that this is a bull trap. Volume picked up some on the symmetric triangle breakout, but not a tremendous amount. An argument could be made for bearish MACD and RSI divergences at the moment as well. I am very patient on the big “all in” long term trades in waiting for the long term signals to be very much in my favor. I do not see that yet.
Update from 12/27:
Didn’t take the small trade I was talking about, but I did move my buy orders higher.
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